Israel, Iran And A Bombing In Sudan

Last week's bombing of a munitions factory in Sudan continues to generate analysis and conjecture.

Israeli officials aren't commenting on the air raid, though Sudan immediately blamed Israel for the attack which killed two people. The target is believed to be a conduit for arms between Iran and Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

Israel learned of the plant and its connection to Iran after the 2010 assassination of Hamas weapons procurer Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai, Britain's Sunday Times reported. Preparation for the long-distance raid began shortly after that. The newspaper cast the raid as "a dry run" for a possible Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, noting that, at a distance of 2,400 miles, the Sudanese plant was farther from Israel than Iran.

Eight F-15 fighter jets flew along the Red Sea, refueling in mid-air, with four dropping one-ton bombs on the weapons plant, reports claim.

Mabhouh carried a copy of a 2008 agreement between Iran and Sudan authorizing the plant's work making weapons for Hamas, the Times report said. (The report requires a subscription. Israel Hayom published a summary here.) Members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly supervised work at the plant.

The only clear fact is that a weapons factory in Sudan was bombed. Who did it, and what implications it has for Israel, Hamas, Iran or anyone else remains unclear.

The Sunday Times quoted an unnamed Israeli defense source boasting: "This was a show of force but it was only a fraction of our capability — and of what the Iranians can expect in the countdown to the spring."

The Washington Post's Max Fisher offers four theories with the caveat that any, all or none of them could be true. So there's that.

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